What Is the Natural Growth Argument for Settlement Expansion?
The Levy Commission recommended fixing settlement jurisdiction for “future natural growth”. The Bureau recorded 40.9 per 1,000 in Modi’in Illit in 2020.
40.9 per 1,000 residents was the rate of natural increase the Central Bureau of Statistics recorded for Modi’in Illit in 2020, the highest of any Jewish local authority and about three times the national rate of 13.9 in the same year. The argument itself appears in Israel’s own record in the report of the Levy Commission, appointed by the government in 2012, which recommended that each settlement’s municipal jurisdiction be determined by order “taking into due consideration future natural growth”. That report was a government-appointed commission’s own recommendation and was not adopted as such. Natural increase, on the Bureau’s definition, is live births less deaths per 1,000 residents and carries no migration component.
| Figure | What it counts | Who published it | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| “future natural growth” | The criterion recommended for fixing each settlement’s municipal jurisdiction by order | Levy Commission, appointed by the Israeli government | Report signed 21 June 2012 |
| 40.9 per 1,000 | Natural increase in Modi’in Illit, live births less deaths, highest Jewish local authority | Central Bureau of Statistics | 2020 |
| 13.9 per 1,000 | National rate of natural increase, against 14.9 in 2019 | Central Bureau of Statistics | 2020 |
| minus 4.7 per 1,000 | Natural increase in Kfar Shmaryahu, deaths exceeding live births | Central Bureau of Statistics | 2020 |
| 26 of 105 | Unauthorized outposts standing on State land, on data supplied by the Civil Administration | Prime Minister’s Office | March 2005 |
| 6,605 | Illegal-construction cases identified in the Israeli sector by the Civil Administration’s supervision unit | State Comptroller of Israel | 1997 to 2013 |
The Levy Report ties jurisdiction orders to future natural growth
The Levy Commission stated its recommendations at paragraph 65 of its report, signed on 21 June 2012 and released on 9 July 2012. This is a legal opinion by a commission the Israeli government appointed to examine the government’s own conduct, and it is that commission’s own position rather than adopted policy: its closing page reads, “Should the government decide to adopt our recommendations, it will be necessary to implement those principles in detail.”
The three recommendations that carry the argument, as printed:
- Determine each settlement’s municipal jurisdiction by order, “taking into due consideration future natural growth”.
- Remove “the administrative barriers imposed on the planning and zoning authorities … without any further need for additional approval by the political level”.
- Pending completion, “the state is advised to refrain from carrying out demolition orders, since it brought about the present situation through its own actions.”
The report publishes no settlement count, no outpost count and no housing figure of its own.
Modi’in Illit recorded 40.9 natural increase per 1,000 in 2020
The Central Bureau of Statistics publishes natural increase for every local authority in Israel, settlements included, in Local Authorities in Israel 2020. It records Modi’in Illit as a municipality in the Judea and Samaria District and Immanuel as a local council in the same district, and gives the character of both as Haredi. The Bureau prints its own explanation above the table: high rates of natural increase are found mainly in Jewish local authorities of Haredi character and in Muslim local authorities.
Of these four, only Modi’in Illit and Immanuel were located in the volume’s district listing, so no district is stated here for the other two.
The 13.9 national rate counts births minus deaths only
The Central Bureau of Statistics defines natural increase as the difference between live births and deaths during a year, expressed per 1,000 residents on the average population. The series carries no migration component, which is why several authorities record a negative rate, and why the Bureau publishes population change and natural increase as separate measures.
| Local authority | Natural increase per 1,000, 2020 | What a negative rate means |
|---|---|---|
| Kfar Shmaryahu | minus 4.7 | Deaths exceeded live births |
| Kiryat Yam | minus 1.1 | Deaths exceeded live births |
| Bat Yam | 0.2 | Live births exceeded deaths |
| Omer | 0.3 | Live births exceeded deaths |
| National rate | 13.9 | Live births exceeded deaths |
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Local Authorities in Israel 2020, Table D, rates for 2020.
The 1979 resolution requires State land and a government decision
The Prime Minister’s Office published, in March 2005, the English summary of an opinion it commissioned on unauthorized outposts. The legality test it applies is a 1979 government resolution, taken after the High Court of Justice ruling in Elon Moreh, that “Israeli settlements in Judea, Samaria and Gaza shall be established only on State land”, and the first characteristic of an unauthorized outpost is that “There was no government decision to establish it, and in any case no authorized political echelon approved its establishment.” The land figures below are the reviewer’s own count off data supplied by the Civil Administration, which the summary states was incomplete, and the total of 105 is described in the same document as probably not reflecting the true number, so both counts are floors. The statutory position on the state’s role in settlement sits in Basic Law: Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish People, and what State land means in the area rests on separate instruments.
- 26 of the 105 outposts on State land, 7 on survey lands, 15 on Palestinian private property, 39 on mixed lands, and a remainder whose land status the reviewer could not resolve.
- 71 established before March 2001, 24 afterwards, 10 with no established date.
No Israeli body here publishes housing units attributed to natural growth
None of the Israeli official records used on this page carries a count of housing units, building permits or dunams approved on a natural-growth ground. The State Comptroller of Israel published, in Annual Report 66b of 2016, the supervision unit’s own counts of its own enforcement activity in the area, and those counts are broken down by sector rather than by any ground for approval. In Annual Report 70C the State Comptroller stated that real estate in Judea and Samaria is registered in hard-copy registers, with no computerised system.
| Figure | What it counts | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 6,605 | Illegal-construction cases identified in the Israeli sector, of which 1,807 demolished, 27% | 1997 to 2013 |
| 13,481 | Illegal-construction cases identified in the Palestinian sector, of which 3,813 demolished, 28% | 1997 to 2013 |
| 120 | Israeli localities in Area C, 87 of them established by the Settlement Division, holding about 100,000 residents | As at the audit, 2014 |
| About 450,000 dunams | Area C land allocated by the Custodian to the Settlement Division under permit agreements | As at the audit, 2014 |
Source: State Comptroller of Israel, Annual Report 66b, 2016, relaying counts published by the Civil Administration’s Central Supervision Unit.
Which figures here may not be added together?
The Central Bureau of Statistics rates are rates per 1,000 residents, not percentages and not counts of people, and natural increase excludes migration entirely, so a locality’s natural increase is not its population growth. The two demolition shares have different denominators, 3,813 of 13,481 and 1,807 of 6,605, and each is a share of that sector’s own identified cases across a cumulative window. The 105 outposts and the 26 on State land are both floors on partial data, and the four land categories in that review total 87, leaving 18 unresolved. Land allocated under permit agreements, land declared State land and land built on are three separate objects.
Questions readers ask
What is the natural growth argument for settlement expansion?
It is the argument that building should follow the growth of existing communities. The Levy Commission published it as a planning criterion in June 2012, recommending that municipal jurisdiction be fixed by order “taking into due consideration future natural growth”.
Where does the phrase appear in an Israeli official document?
The Levy Commission stated it at paragraph 65 of its report, signed 21 June 2012, in the recommendations addressed to the Israeli government that appointed it.
Were the Levy Commission’s recommendations adopted?
The commission stated that adoption was a matter for the government, writing, “Should the government decide to adopt our recommendations, it will be necessary to implement those principles in detail.” Its recommendations were not adopted as such.
What was the highest natural increase rate recorded in 2020?
The Central Bureau of Statistics recorded 40.9 per 1,000 residents in Modi’in Illit, followed by Beitar Illit at 40.4, Immanuel at 39.8 and Kiryat Ye’arim at 39.0.
What was the national rate?
The Central Bureau of Statistics recorded 13.9 per 1,000 in 2020, slightly below 14.9 in 2019.
Does natural increase measure how fast a place is growing?
No. The Central Bureau of Statistics defines it as live births less deaths only, and publishes it separately from population change, so people moving in or out are outside the measure.
Which localities recorded negative natural increase?
The Central Bureau of Statistics recorded minus 4.7 per 1,000 in Kfar Shmaryahu and minus 1.1 in Kiryat Yam in 2020, meaning deaths exceeded live births.
Why are some rates so high?
The Central Bureau of Statistics prints its own note that high rates are found mainly in Jewish local authorities of Haredi character and in Muslim local authorities, and it records the character of Modi’in Illit and Immanuel as Haredi.
What does the Israeli policy test require before a settlement is established?
The Prime Minister’s Office published a March 2005 summary stating the 1979 government resolution that settlements “shall be established only on State land”, and that an unauthorized outpost is one established without a government decision.
How many outposts stood on State land in 2005?
The Prime Minister’s Office published, in March 2005, that 26 of the 105 outposts then known stood on State land, on data supplied by the Civil Administration that the summary describes as incomplete.
Does any Israeli body publish housing approved on natural-growth grounds?
None of the records used here does. The State Comptroller of Israel counted illegal-construction cases by sector for 1997 to 2013 and Israeli localities in Area C as at 2014, with no breakdown by ground for approval.
How is land in the area registered?
The State Comptroller of Israel stated in Annual Report 70C that real estate in Judea and Samaria is registered in hard-copy registers with no computerised system, and that about four years of computerisation work had not been completed.
Sources
- Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, 2022. Local Authorities in Israel 2020: Introduction, Comparative Tables. Publication 1879, Table D. Official or primary record.
- Levy Commission to Examine the Status of Building in Judea and Samaria, 2012. Report on the Legal Status of Building in Judea and Samaria. Signed 21 June 2012, released 9 July 2012. Government-appointed commission report.
- Prime Minister’s Office of Israel, 2005. Summary of the Opinion Concerning Unauthorized Outposts. Published 10 March 2005. Government-commissioned review.
- State Comptroller of Israel, 2016. Judea and Samaria Area: Activity of the Supervision and Enforcement Unit and Aspects of Land Registration. Annual Report 66b. Official or primary record.
- State Comptroller of Israel, 2021. Staff Officers in the Civil Administration in the Judea and Samaria Region. Annual Report 70C, English abstract. Official or primary record.
