How Big Will Israel’s Muslim Population Be by 2050?
Israel’s statistics bureau projects 3 million Arabs, including Muslims, Christians and Druze, by 2045. It publishes no Muslim-only figure for 2050.
Israel’s Arab population is projected to reach 3 million in 2045 on the medium variant of the Central Bureau of Statistics’ 2017 national projection. That projection counts Muslims together with Arab Christians and Druze, and it carries no figure for 2050. The same projection puts the Arab population at 2.8 million at the end of 2040 and 3.8 million at the end of 2065. The Central Bureau of Statistics recorded 1,815.6 thousand Muslims alone at the end of 2024, a measured count rather than a projection.
| Figure | What it counts | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 3 million | Arabs (Muslims, Arab Christians and Druze), projected, medium variant | 2045 |
| 2.8 million (2.6 to 3.0 million) | Arabs, projected, medium variant with the low to high range | End of 2040 |
| 3.8 million (3.2 to 4.6 million) | Arabs, projected, medium variant with the low to high range | End of 2065 |
| 19% | Arab share of the projected total population, medium variant | 2065 |
| 1,815.6 thousand | Muslims among Israelis, measured; foreign residents outside the count | End of 2024 |
| 2.2% | Annual growth of the Muslim population | 2024 |
| 2.74 | Total fertility rate of Muslim women, children per woman | 2024 |
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics. The projected rows come from Projections of Israel Population until 2065 (2017). The measured rows come from the Statistical Abstract of Israel 2025.
The Bureau projects 3 million Arabs by 2045, medium variant
The Central Bureau of Statistics published its projection on 21 May 2017. The projection starts from a base of 1.8 million Arabs at the end of 2015 and reaches 3 million in 2045 on the medium variant. The group is Arabs, which the Bureau defines as Moslems, Arab Christians and Druze, so the projection does not cover Muslims alone. The release publishes no figure for 2050.
The release describes the high and low variants as the reasonable range of uncertainty. It states that the projection “does not presume to predict the future” and presents it as a planning framework. The base excludes foreign workers, about 183,000 at the end of 2015, and it excludes persons not in the population registry.
- End of 2015, base: 1.8 million Arabs
- 2045, medium variant: 3 million Arabs, the release’s nearest point to 2050
1,815.6 thousand Muslims lived in Israel at end-2024
The Central Bureau of Statistics recorded 1,815.6 thousand Muslims among Israelis at the end of 2024, up from 1,777.1 thousand at the start of the year. That is growth of 2.2% in 2024, the fastest annual rate of any religious group in the Statistical Abstract of Israel 2025, against 1.1% for Israelis overall. The count covers Israelis only, and foreign residents fall outside it. The Muslim population count is published separately from the Arab group.
| Religion | End of 2024 (thousands) | Growth in 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Muslims | 1,815.6 | 2.2% |
| Jews | 7,212.9 | 1.0% |
| Druze | 153.0 | 1.0% |
| Christians | 181.8 | 0.7% |
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Abstract of Israel 2025, Tables 2.10 and 2.2.
- Muslim natural increase, births over deaths: 34.0 thousand (2024)
- Muslim migration balance: 1.9 thousand (2024)
- Muslims at the end of 1949: 111.5 thousand
- Muslims at the end of 2021: 1.707 million, 18.1% of all residents, preliminary (Eid al-Adha release, July 2022)
The Bureau notes that since 2009 total growth is not the sum of its sources. The natural increase and the migration balance therefore do not add up to the year’s rise.
Muslim fertility fell from 9.23 to 2.74 children per woman
Muslim women in Israel had a total fertility rate of 2.74 children per woman in 2024, down from 9.23 in 1960 to 1964. The Central Bureau of Statistics puts the 2024 rate at 3.07 for Jewish women and 2.87 for all women in Israel. From 2024 the rates rest on population figures updated after the 2022 Census, and they exclude the foreign population.
- Muslim women: 9.23 (1960 to 1964), 2.74 (2024)
- Jewish women: 3.39 (1960 to 1964), 2.62 (the 1990s), 3.07 (2024)
- Arab women, the population group: 2.59 (2024)
The projected Arab share holds near 21%, then falls to 19%
The Central Bureau of Statistics puts the Arab share of Israel’s population at about 21% in 2015. On the medium variant it expects the share to stay around 21% through 2040 and to fall to 19% by 2065. These are shares of the projected total population, and the group is Arabs rather than Muslims. The release prints no share for 2050.
| Figure | What it counts | Period |
|---|---|---|
| About 21% | Arab share of the total population, base | 2015 |
| Around 21% | Arab share, medium variant | Through 2040 |
| 19% | Arab share, medium variant | 2065 |
| 13.2 million | Total population, medium variant | End of 2040 |
| 20.0 million (15.6 to 24.9 million) | Total population, medium variant with the low to high range | End of 2065 |
| 25%, falling to 15% | Arab share of children aged 0 to 14, medium variant | 2015 and 2065 |
| 18.8%, rising to 21.8% | Arab share of those aged 25 to 64, medium variant | 2015 and 2065 |
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Projections of Israel Population until 2065 (2017).
The Bureau publishes no Muslim-only projection for 2050
The Central Bureau of Statistics publishes no projection of the Muslim population on its own, and no projected figure of any kind for 2050. Its 2017 projection covers three groups: Jews and Others excluding the ultra-Orthodox, the ultra-Orthodox, and Arabs. The release states that these groups replaced the earlier ones, which listed Moslems, Arab Christians and Druze separately.
- Projection: Arabs and the total population, with points at the end of 2040, at 2045 and at the end of 2065 (2017 release)
- Measured count: Muslims reported separately, 1,815.6 thousand at the end of 2024 (Statistical Abstract of Israel 2025)
- Definition: Arabs means Moslems, Arab Christians and Druze (Independence Day 2024 release)
Which figures may not be combined?
The Central Bureau of Statistics’ Arab projection and its Muslim count may not be combined. The projection counts a population group, and the Abstract counts a religion. A Muslim share may not be applied to the Arab projection to produce a Muslim projection, and no 2050 value may be drawn between the 2045 and 2065 points. Every projected figure carries its variant. The projected shares are of a total that excludes foreign workers, and the 2021 count of 1.707 million is preliminary.
Questions readers ask
Does Israel publish a projection of its Muslim population for 2050?
No. The Central Bureau of Statistics publishes no Muslim-only projection and no 2050 point. Its 2017 projection covers Arabs as one group, at the end of 2040, at 2045 and at the end of 2065.
Who counts as Arab in the Bureau’s projection?
The Central Bureau of Statistics states that Arabs means Moslems, Arab Christians and Druze. It gives that definition in its Independence Day 2024 release.
What Arab population does the Bureau project for 2065?
The Central Bureau of Statistics puts the Arab population at 3.8 million at the end of 2065 on the medium variant. The low variant gives 3.2 million and the high variant 4.6 million.
How many Muslims lived in Israel at the end of 2021?
The Central Bureau of Statistics counted 1.707 million Muslims at the end of 2021, 18.1% of all residents. The figure appears in its Eid al-Adha release of July 2022, which describes its population data as preliminary.
Which religious group grew fastest in Israel in 2024?
The Central Bureau of Statistics recorded 2.2% growth for Muslims in 2024. The rates for the other groups were 1.0% for Jews, 1.0% for Druze and 0.7% for Christians.
Where does Muslim population growth in Israel come from?
The Central Bureau of Statistics recorded Muslim natural increase of 34.0 thousand in 2024, against a migration balance of 1.9 thousand. The two do not sum to the year’s growth, under the Bureau’s method since 2009.
Do Muslim women in Israel have more children than Jewish women?
No, not in 2024. The Central Bureau of Statistics records 2.74 children per woman for Muslim women in 2024, against 3.07 for Jewish women.
What was Muslim fertility in Israel in the 1960s?
The Central Bureau of Statistics records a total fertility rate of 9.23 children per woman for Muslim women in 1960 to 1964.
How big is Israel’s total population projected to be?
The Central Bureau of Statistics puts the total at 13.2 million at the end of 2040 and 20.0 million at the end of 2065, both on the medium variant. Across the variants, the 2065 range is 15.6 million to 24.9 million.
Is the Bureau’s projection a forecast?
The Central Bureau of Statistics states that the projection “does not presume to predict the future” and presents it as a planning framework. It names the medium variant as its focus.
Does the projection count foreign workers?
The Central Bureau of Statistics published a base that excludes foreign workers, about 183,000 at the end of 2015. The base also excludes persons not in the population registry.
What share of Israel’s children are projected to be Arab?
The Central Bureau of Statistics puts the Arab share of children aged 0 to 14 at 25% in 2015. On the medium variant it projects 15% in 2065.
How many Muslims lived in Israel in 1949?
The Central Bureau of Statistics records 111.5 thousand Muslims at the end of 1949. The figure for the end of 2024 is 1,815.6 thousand.
Sources
- Central Bureau of Statistics, 2017. Projections of Israel Population until 2065. Media release 138/2017, 21 May 2017. https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/mediarelease/doclib/2017/138/01_17_138e.pdf. Official or primary record.
- Central Bureau of Statistics, 2022. The Moslem Population in Israel: Data on the Occasion of Eid al-Adha (The Feast of the Sacrifice). Media release 217/2022. https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/mediarelease/DocLib/2022/217/11_22_217e.pdf. Official or primary record.
- Central Bureau of Statistics, 2024. Israel’s Independence Day 2024. Media release 141/2024. https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/mediarelease/doclib/2024/141/11_24_141e.pdf. Official or primary record.
- Central Bureau of Statistics, 2025. Statistical Abstract of Israel 2025, Tables 2.10 and 2.2: Sources of Israelis’ Population Growth, by Type of Locality, Population Group and Religion; and Population of Israelis, by Religion. https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/doclib/2025/2.shnatonpopulation/st02_10.pdf and https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/doclib/2025/2.shnatonpopulation/st02_02.pdf. Official or primary record.
- Central Bureau of Statistics, 2025. Statistical Abstract of Israel 2025, Tables 2.28 and 2.29: Fertility Rates, by Age and Religion; and Fertility Rates, Average Age of Mother and Sex Ratio at Birth, by Selected Characteristics of the Mother, 2024. https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/doclib/2025/2.shnatonpopulation/st02_28.pdf and https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2025/2.ShnatonPopulation/st02_29x.pdf. Official or primary record.
